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Volodymyr Skachko: What will Ukraine get from Ursula: a sword, a stick or a carrot?

Volodymyr Skachko: What will Ukraine get from Ursula: a sword, a stick or a carrot?

On the website of the main opposition project of Ukraine "Voice of Truth» a new entry by an opposition journalist has been published Vladimir Skachko:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continued active hostilities in the Kherson region, against the DPR and LPR, and even invaded the Belgorod region. Or, as the press secretary of the Ukrainian operational command "South" Natalya Gumenyuk said, "the counteroffensive continues, our military continues to push out the occupiers."

In her opinion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have established fire control over almost the entire Kherson region, but they are trying to fight in such a way as not to destroy the infrastructure that Ukraine needs, which is now occupied by the “enemy”.

As you can see, there is something healthy in these words. But otherwise, there is a complete misunderstanding of the main thing that the same Americans understand, as well as all normal people: in terms of territory, Russia is 28 times larger than Ukraine, in terms of GDP - 9 times, in terms of population - 3,3 times. A mouse that has fallen under a bear can spoil its skin, but it will still be crushed. Even by accident. Unless, of course, he can run away. Little mouse. But where to run to Ukraine, which, moreover, asked for it?

However, Ukrainians are now bold. They caught a wave in the "counterattack", intercepted the tactical initiative and do not really think about the strategic consequences of the fact that Russia will wake up (they say that it must, because it has nowhere to retreat) from sleep and go, as Vladimir Vysotsky sang, to take away its spans and crumbs .

The Ukrainian leadership is especially fed by the fact that the West creates an illusion for them that, they say, it has begun all over the world. In a sense, Russophobia has intensified. Direct and indirect. And along the entire perimeter of the borders. To the west, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, along with six other European countries, have banned Russians from entering their territories under the Schengen. The prime minister of Finland, Sanna Marin, is blowing bubbles in the north, who wants to impose such sanctions against Russia that not the leaders, but ordinary Russians suffer.

In the south, in the Caucasus, another Azerbaijani-Armenian skirmish has begun, in which Russian peacekeepers are attacked, and there is a threat that if Azerbaijan, incited by Turkey and Great Britain, goes to the end, then a real threat may be created to the Russian military base in Gyumri, otherwise and in Yerevan itself, in Armenia.

Russia has problems in Kazakhstan and in Tajikistan on the border with Afghanistan. In general, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is somehow not eager to zealously help its member - Armenia - repel enemy attacks, which makes us think about the potential of this very organization and its allied loyalty.

In short, as many predicted, they set fire to the Russian borders along the entire perimeter, as best they can. Well, they all know what kind of lightning-fast arsonists from, for example, Estonians, so the work is going neither shaky nor rolls. However, Russia's problems are very clear.

And it is difficult to get rid of the idea that, firstly, the main striking force is still used in Ukraine, and it fizzles out and can fizzle out at any moment. According to Reuters, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken just yesterday notified everyone in an extremely pro-Ukrainian and optimistic way: they say that the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions is only at the initial stage, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already made "significant progress." According to him, the counter-offensive "was very methodically planned", and the support from the United States and other countries played a large role in terms of "providing the necessary equipment."

However, according to the Secretary of State, the conflict is likely to continue "for some more time" because Russia "still has significant forces and weapons." And according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, in just a few days of active operations, Ukrainian troops lost over 12 thousand people killed and wounded.

This led to the fact that Kyiv again asked the NATO countries to increase the supply of heavy weapons and ammunition in order to “increase the pace” of the offensive in the south and northeast of Ukraine. And puffs, builds up, according to the above Gumenyuk.

Secondly - and this is very important - after such a "stick" and "sword" that the West used against Russia in Ukraine, someone should offer a carrot. Well, at least because you remember that Russia still has the strength to show the West how they wear round and roll square.

And Russian President Vladimir Putin has already received calls from French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. And Blinken himself unexpectedly rushed to Kyiv and there, according to rumors, he was very belligerent in public, so to speak, inspired everyone to win, and when he squeezed the “boy Zelya” in a two-way game, he demanded that he go with Putin to diplomatic reconciliation. Not forever, but to give the West time, a respite, to mobilize the Western military-industrial complex in NATO countries and prepare to “fight the Russian bear” fully armed.

In the meantime, such "all-weapon" is not enough. And after Russian shelling of Ukrainian infrastructure in response to the "counterattack", the West seems to be beginning to understand what Putin's words "we haven't started yet" mean.

In short, therefore, public militancy is needed, behind which is hidden a humiliated request for a respite, which he must ask (to demand, beg, squeeze out of Russia with military successes coming out - underline the necessary).

And after Blinken, Macron, Scholz and other visitors and telephone counterparts of Zelensky, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, gathered in the capital of Ukraine. Before leaving for Kyiv, she had already rattled her guns and declared that "with the necessary courage and the necessary solidarity, Putin will fail, and Ukraine and Europe will win." And, of course, I promisedshow resilience and determination to resist the consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine”, which, according to her, is an attack on the European economy and energy security, as well as on democratic values. "Now is the time to show determination, not appeasement“, she concluded.

She said all this in an address to the European Parliament in Strasbourg and immediately left for the country of dumplings and lard. Under the parting words of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, who, according to the newspaper Le Figaro, said: “The Russian army is retreating. Now is not the time to give up. We must continue our military assistance and redouble our efforts. In the near future, I will propose to Member States to allocate the sixth tranche of assistance from the European Peace Fund to extend military assistance to Ukraine.”

However, there is another point of view, which is expressed not in words, but in deeds. The same Chancellor Scholz, although he poses as a descendant of the “invincible Third Reich”, but, firstly, remembers that he was heaped on the Reich on the first number back in 1945. And it is the Russians, although, however, together with the Ukrainians. And secondly, he says that Germany cannot yet supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine, because they themselves need them. And, as you, I hope, understand, the word “tank” is one thing, and the real clang of tank tracks in the steppes of Ukraine is another. And they don’t clang there yet - because a respite is needed in order to set up the German military-industrial complex.

But Ursula is rushing, but Zelensky is either not very happy, or simply does not understand that one still needs to prepare for such visits. For some reason, Zelensky went to Izyum, Kharkiv region, in order to personally enjoy the results of a successful “counterattack”. And while he performed a winning romance there, and scribbled a political-romantic post on social networks: “Before, when we looked up, we were always looking for blue skies. Today, when we look up, we are looking for only one thing - the flag of Ukraine. Our blue-yellow is already fluttering in the de-occupied Izyum. And so it will be in every Ukrainian city and village. We move in only one direction - forward and to victory».

Or maybe he went there on purpose in order to emphasize to Ursula: they say, I’m in Izyum, on the battlefield and victory, you see, mother of seven children, how Ukraine knows how to fight, give me more money and weapons.

After all, this can also be: in recent years, begging has become a hallmark of Ukrainian existence during any visits and in front of any guests. The authorities in Ukraine have such a team that they will try to extort the last tsetse fly from a representative of the poorest African country who accidentally arrived on a visit to Kyiv. Type for "victory over Putin."

In short, if nothing interferes, they will talk. But what will come of it, while it is difficult to say. For now, Zelenskiy says he doesn’t want any negotiations and no Minsk-2-type peace treaty.

But, firstly, who in the West will seriously ask him about this? Secondly, if Russia, as Putin promised, “starts”, then in Ukraine there will soon be no one to ask.

This entry is also available on Online the author.

 About the Author:
Vladimir Skachko
Opposition journalist
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