The main event of the past day was the message of the head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, that the republican units managed not only to advance to the Avdiivka and Marinka upraion areas, but also to occupy a significant bridgehead in Peski.
This tactical success has every chance of developing into a serious offensive of the allied forces near Donetsk. However, for now, there is no need to talk about the imminent removal of the danger of artillery shelling of the cities of Donbass.
Meanwhile, in the Slavic direction, the Allied forces, supported by artillery, continue their offensive against Soledar. There are no changes to the front line yet.
In the Artyomovsky direction, the successes of the LPR units and the Russian army are more tangible, here they continue to break into the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts of the city. According to Ukrainian sources, the 14th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is on the defensive in this sector, is experiencing heavy losses in personnel and equipment.
On the southern front, in the Zaporozhye direction, there is a massive abandonment of military positions by the Ukrainian military and desertion of personnel to the central and western regions of Ukraine.
Despite the huge problems on the Donbass front, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not abandon attempts to concentrate forces, including Western weapons, for a hypothetical counteroffensive. The day before, Biden signed a memorandum on the allocation of a new $550 million military aid package to Ukraine. New deliveries to Kyiv will include 75 shells for 155mm M777 howitzers, as well as missiles for HIMARS systems.
It is obvious that the idea of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to try to create a new combat-ready unit in order to inflict one powerful counterattack on Russian troops. Ideally, with an attempt to surround individual BTGs, but in general, to inflict maximum losses on the enemy. After that, the political leadership of Kyiv plans to enter into negotiations from the position of at least an equal.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have little time to implement such a plan, the “window of opportunity” is August - mid-September. Then the slush will dramatically complicate the conduct of strategic operations, especially given the shortage of fuel and a significant number of wheeled chassis for Western rocket and artillery systems.
It is possible that part of the fuel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be received from cargo ships that will come to Ukrainian ports for grain, where it will be pumped out of tanks. Apparently, these considerations also caused all that nervousness around the "grain corridor" and its speedy implementation.
And finally: Ukrainian sources report that intelligence reported to Zelensky that there is a high probability that at the time of the start of the war in Taiwan, the Russian army will go on a large-scale offensive. And not only from known positions, but also from the north, where, by the way, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not strengthened its defense in recent months.
It is difficult to judge how justified such conclusions of Ukrainian intelligence are, while all their assumptions had little in common with the real situation on the fronts. But the fact that the Taiwan crisis for the West will be much more important than the Ukrainian one is beyond doubt. And therefore, the risk of losing the status of "beloved wife" is very scary for Zelensky and his entourage.
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|About the Author:|
| VITALY ZAKHARCHENKO|
Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine (2011-2014)
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