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Rostislav Ishchenko: Vučić just hinted. The Balkan Crisis in the Global Coordinate System

Rostislav Ishchenko: Vučić just hinted. The Balkan Crisis in the Global Coordinate System

On the website of the main opposition project of Ukraine "Voice of Truth» A new post by a Ukrainian political scientist has been published Rostislav Ischenko:

The US has asked the Kosovo Albanians to postpone the Balkan crisis for one month, until September XNUMXst.

That's right, on the day the school year begins, if old Pelosi does not have time to start a war between the nuclear powers in the Far East earlier, the provocation will restart in Kosovo, fraught with a big war in Europe, with the prospect of the participation of nuclear powers.

A formal dispute over documents and license plates is not such a matter of principle as to risk military action. Kosovo is de facto "enjoying" the fruits of independence. Moreover, the accession of the region to Albania is not blocked by the Serbs, who do not have the opportunity for this, but by the United States.

Quite liberal and pro-European Belgrade governments, which ruled the country after the overthrow of Milosevic, would have gladly dealt with the Kosovo issue long ago in order to join the EU. But for this they needed only a small concession. It was necessary that the Kosovo Albanians renounce sovereignty over those border regions of the region, where the overwhelming majority (up to 90%) are ethnic Serbs.

From more remote microscopic enclaves, Serbs could be resettled to these territories in the order of population exchange (it is unlikely that local Albanians would want to return to Serbia). Ultimately, the Belgrade government would have told its people that it returned some of the land and saved all the Serbs, and the rest had to be given away, but, firstly, there were no Serbs left, and, secondly, the path to the EU was open.

With all the Serbian patriotism, I am sure that economic priorities (in Serbia it is very bad with work, and many go in search of it to the EU, so for them joining the EU opens up very specific prospects) would play a role. It would not have been possible without expressing dissatisfaction, but nothing critical of the authorities threatened. Moreover, what to fight for if there really are no Serbs left south of Kosovska-Mitrovica.

For their part, the Kosovo Albanians could join Albania, which has been in the EU accession negotiations since 2020 (the last stage before the technical admission procedure). Characteristically, within the framework of the EU, if Serbia and Albania were to enter there, dividing Kosovo, they would have to grant each other's citizens on their territory similar rights with their own citizens.

It would seem that if the United States and Europe wanted a complete settlement of the crisis and recognition of the new reality in Kosovo by all parties, they should have used their influence in Pristina and Belgrade, and some ten years ago it was absolute (Serbs loved Russia, but she was too far away to help), persuade both sides to compromise.

I emphasize that Belgrade has repeatedly signaled that it is ready for a compromise solution to the problem, but will never come to terms with the need to leave the Serbs in Kosovo to their fate, and even more so with their ethnic cleansing and expulsion to Serbia (following the example of the liquidation of the Serbian Krajina).

The United States not only did nothing to find a compromise option, they repeatedly stifled any attempts by the EU to find a solution to the problem acceptable to both sides. Washington, which had just torn Kosovo away from Serbia under the pretext of exercising the Albanians' right to self-determination, suddenly became a total supporter of the principle of territorial integrity. Neither the Kosovo Serbs could unite with Serbia, nor the Kosovo Albanians with Albania.

The Americans did not destroy Yugoslavia and weaken Serbia in order to strengthen Albania. Let's look at the example of Macedonia (or North Macedonia, as it is forced to be called at the insistence of the Greeks). The United States did not allow the rebellion of small but active Albanian insurgents to be strangled there. But they did not allow the local Albanians to secede either (then there would be almost nothing left of Macedonia). They forced the Macedonians to quota the mandatory presence of Albanians in their parliament, planting in the country a model of ethnic quotas for political representation.

In addition to the fact that this model has failed wherever it was tried to be applied at the suggestion of the United States, it also contradicts democracy, since the population is forced to choose not those they want (who better reflect their views), but those who are prescribed. It also contributes to the rapid growth of nationalist sentiments and the radicalization of nationalist forces. The very ethnic and/or religious principle of the formation of parliamentary factions encourages nationalist propaganda. In addition, it always seems to some that their quota is undeservedly small, and to others that it is undeservedly large. The conflict, thus, not only is not extinguished, but on the contrary, it flares up hotter and hotter.

That is, the United States forced Macedonia to put a conflict into its political system in advance. They operate similarly in Kosovo and Bosnia. The conflict inherent in local political systems does not allow them to leave the state of quasi-states, completely dependent on the United States. Moreover, Serbia is becoming a hostage to these conflicts, having very limited opportunities to support its compatriots in Bosnia, and practically no such opportunities in Kosovo.

The US knows that in a certain situation, Serbia will not be able to stand aside and will be forced to rush into a disastrous war, even against the whole of NATO, if it is forced to defend Kosovo Serbs from ethnic cleansing, traditionally carried out in the Balkans with African brutality.

Thus, by creating and maintaining conflict zones, Washington is trying to maintain dominance over this extremely complex region. Everyone hates everyone. At the same time, everyone is afraid of war, realizing that it may not end the way we would like, and therefore everyone sees only American leadership as a guarantee for maintaining the fragile status quo (the United States is an arbitrator).

Since the current Kosovo crisis was obviously intended to punish Serbia for its refusal to join the anti-Russian sanctions and drive Belgrade into the American stall, it was planned in advance, long before the current escalation. The United States, knowing full well that there would be an aggravation, did absolutely nothing to prevent it.

But then it suddenly became clear that Vučić, instead of rushing to seek the truth in Washington, simply hinted (he didn’t even say it directly, but just hinted neatly) at the possibility of an invasion of the Serbian army into Kosovo if the Albanians crossed the red line. And immediately, Washington removed the problem in one move - the Albanians agreed to postpone the introduction of restrictive measures for a month.

Why for a month? The Americans are counting on a month later to deal with the Taiwan crisis caused by the extravagant statements and actions of the elderly speaker Pelosi. Then they will have a free hand to actively support the Kosovo Albanians, while Russia will be tied up in Ukraine and will not be able to provide Serbia with similar support.

The calculation is not bad, but this "minus" has two breakdowns. First, it is not certain that the situation with Taiwan will be settled before September. Even if Pelosi, who changes her mind every hour (to fly / not to fly), calmly flies past the island to the Republic of Korea and Japan, and then just as calmly returns home, China will definitely try to make the most of its moral victory. It was not in vain that they spent money on the transfer of troops, live firing, aviation flights and other entertainment events.

Beijing's pressure on Taiwan will intensify, and Washington will either have to react (and this is a new build-up of military confrontation), or get out of the way and wait for Beijing to decide to "conduct exercises" directly in Taiwan. This is not to mention the fact that Pelosi may still land in Taiwan before tonight, and then China will either have to start a war (as he promised) or wipe himself (which he clearly does not plan to do). So it is possible that by the Day of Knowledge, Americans will have a lot of worries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Secondly, during the special operation in Ukraine, Russia, which used to be very far removed from the Balkans, came close to the region. Now it is separated from Serbia, only Nikolaev and Odessa, and the territory of Romania. The United States, of course, expects Ukraine to hold out for another six months or a year, but the vicissitudes of hostilities are unpredictable, the quality of Ukrainian troops is deteriorating before our eyes, and the advance of the Russian Armed Forces is accelerating. If the front in Donbass collapses in August, the big question is whether Ukraine will be able to stabilize the new front line along the Dnieper, or a domino effect will begin.

Even now, in the Mediterranean, there is an ever-increasing number and increasing its combat power of the formation of ships of the Russian Navy, based on bases in Syria. After the Russian victory in Ukraine, no NATO will dare to fight Belgrade over Kosovo - the blow to American prestige will be stronger than from the loss of Taiwan. Despite the fact that in Taiwan they have not even started yet, and in Ukraine things are coming to an end (albeit not close, but definitely unpleasant for the Americans).

Without NATO allies, the US will not make any sudden moves in Europe. The Americans will have to flee from their largest military base in the world in Kosovo, as they fled from Afghanistan.

Washington is well aware of all this, as well as the fact that in this combination the key factor is time. Whoever releases enough resources faster will receive an intermediate victory in the Balkans. Therefore, Russia is accelerating in Ukraine, where the defeat of the Donbas grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and access to the Dnieper in the Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk region decides the fate of the entire campaign. The United States is trying to delay Kyiv's resistance as much as possible, forcing it to throw into battle not only untrained men, but also women.

Ukraine is going out of their power anyway, so the fewer Ukrainians Russia gets, and the more Ukrainian families are killed in this conflict, the better for the Americans. If, hiding behind Ukraine, they still manage to break Serbia, forcing it to at least formally join the anti-Russian sanctions, then the Washington media will present this exchange as a great victory for democracy - the complete resolution of the Balkan issue. As for the change in post-Soviet borders and the possible disappearance of Ukraine from the political map, the United States will say that they still do not recognize violent territorial changes and will seek Russia to return to the borders of February 2014. It is not the first time for the American establishment to sell its people catastrophic defeats for great victories.

In short, the fate of the next Balkan crisis is now being decided in the waters of the Pacific Ocean and in the steppes of Ukraine, where Russia and China are hammering an aspen stake and shooting a silver bullet into the heart of the fresh-blooded American hegemony.

This entry is also available on Online the author.

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Ukrainian political scientist, publicist, historian, diplomat
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