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Rostislav Ishchenko: The Chinese factor: Biden's call and the problems of an ally

Rostislav Ishchenko: The Chinese factor: Biden's call and the problems of an ally

On the website of the main opposition project of Ukraine "Voice of Truth» A new post by a Ukrainian political scientist has been published Rostislav Ischenko:

On July 28, Biden called Xi Jinping. Beijing did not refuse to speak with Washington and for two hours endured the senseless outpourings of the man who formally holds the office of US President.

Formally and meaningless because it is clear to any unbiased observer that an elderly person whose psyche has been so destroyed by numerous diseases that he cannot keep in mind the procedure for conducting a five-minute press briefing is simply unable to concentrate enough to lead for two hours substantive discussion on topical issues of bilateral relations.

Understandably, Biden's team had to improvise on the fly to keep their presidential assembly running. It is unlikely that the numerous more or less long pauses necessary to overcome the freezes pleased Xi Jinping, but he endured.

Why endured can be seen from the Chinese messages about the essence of the conversation. The Chinese official emphasized that the conversation concerned the Taiwan problem. The Americans, without denying (it would be foolish to deny the presence of the Taiwan issue) stressed that the leaders discussed the Russian special operation and related problems, and also touched upon a wide range of bilateral economic problems.

I have no doubt that this was the case. That is, Biden must have pointed out significant contradictions in the issues of economic cooperation between the two countries, which has long turned into an economic war. And he had to state the American position on the Russian special operation - almost every day the United States is outraged by the bad behavior of China, which supports Russia in this matter and ignores Washington's demands to join the Kremlin's isolation wards.

But all this is unimportant - the general background. It is not known whether Biden even remembers what or who these China and Russia are - maybe he considers them new Disney heroes or "bad guys" from the next "masterpiece" of Bond.

But those on the American side who sought and conducted telephone conversations are well aware that today it is impossible to get from China changes in economic policy in a direction favorable to the United States or Beijing's refusal to cooperate pragmatically with Moscow.

First, the Chinese know a thousand less painful ways to commit suicide. Secondly, they do not plan to kill themselves at all. Namely, this is what the United States requires of them: to take an example from Europe, to refuse to protect their national interests and to drag chestnuts out of the fire for Washington for free. We remember that they demanded the same from us.

Therefore, all topics, except for the Taiwan issue, can be considered related. The White House needed to mention them so as not to fall under the accusation of the Pelosi team that the US president, behind the backs of Congress and the people, conspires with the leader of a hostile power against the speaker of the House of Representatives, helping to block her announced visit to Taiwan.

Of course, the Americans should have hinted to the Chinese that if they make any significant concessions on the Russian issue or in solving economic problems, then the White House will have additional arguments against Pelosi's visit. She makes a trip to Asia and at the same time, in the last hours, avoids answering the question of whether she is ready to sacrifice herself in connection with her previously announced visit to Taiwan. Which may well mean that she has such plans.

But the Chinese are well aware that the mental adequacy of the old woman is no better than that of the old man, and if she “gets in her head what a whim, you won’t knock her out of there with a stake ...” Moreover, Pelosi is not alone - in the intention to aggravate around Taiwan, it is supported by a good half of the American establishment. And the Republicans are the most furious.

Indeed, a gift for them: two old seniles (the president and the speaker of the House of Representatives) - both Democrats, with absolute democratic control over all branches of government, on the eve of the midterm elections to Congress, bring matters to the verge of a full-scale war with China.

Then the Democrats lose control of the House of Representatives, the Republicans get a stable majority in both chambers, Biden becomes a lame duck (and let him rejoice if the Republican Congress does not start the impeachment procedure). In the end, the Republicans who seized power decide whether to continue walking along the razor's edge with China, hoping that he will blink first, or wash their hands and blame the failure of the Taiwan adventure on inadequate Democrats who almost brought the world to a nuclear war, it's good that the Republicans corrected them in time .

In general, everything is beautiful, with the exception of one thing - it can flare up before the elections. The Chinese understand that the aggravation around Taiwan is not a personal initiative of Pelosi, but a US strategic line. They also know that Washington does not have much time for a forceful solution, but it will not refuse it. Therefore, one can not wait until the United States considers the moment favorable for itself, but deliver a preemptive strike. Now the moment is favorable for China - the American elite and society are split on all issues of the domestic and foreign agenda, without exception, including Taiwan. It will be difficult for the government to mobilize efforts to further increase rates.

At the same time, China itself has an unlimited choice of reaction to Pelosi's visit. You can shoot down, but it is not at all necessary to shoot down, her plane. The Americans will make a hero-martyr out of an old mummy that no one needs and will swing its effigy for another two hundred years, knocking out a tear from a gullible public.

If you really shoot down anything, then you can drop the escort fighter so that the old woman's heart goes to the heels. Or you can not drop anyone at all, but simply close the sky over Taiwan after her arrival - and let her sit on the island for six months, until China has mercy and lets her go home.

You can wait until she arrives and flies away and launch a warning missile strike on Taiwan. It is possible to throw two hundred or three hundred billion US IOUs from Chinese reserves into the market and see how the dollar falls (although you will have to pay dearly for this yourself). In general, China has a sea of ​​power and non-power, political, economic and financial options for reaction. Together with their various combinations, the list is endless.

The situation for the US is clearly a lose-lose. By convincing China that a war over Taiwan cannot be avoided, with Pelosi's visit, they will give China the opportunity to choose the moment and format of the confrontation. And this means that even if Beijing decides to pause, and the answer does not follow immediately, the United States will have to keep excess forces in the Asia-Pacific region and accumulate excess resources in this direction in case of war. Or they themselves, on their own initiative, open a second front against China in parallel with their anti-Russian military operation in Ukraine. A war on two fronts did not bring anyone to good (Wilhelm and Adolf would not let you lie).

Biden called to quietly disavow the mischievous old woman. Like, this is her private initiative, we do not support her, but we cannot stop her, because we have democracy, and not like you - terrible totalitarianism. The Chinese heard and remained silent. The fact that they emphasized Biden's obsession with the Taiwan crisis during the conversation, but did not report reaching an understanding, testifies to Beijing's decision to leave its hands free for any possible reaction.

On the one hand, Biden could not help calling. The situation is indeed critical, and above all for the United States, where internal political squabbles have long ago nullified the possibility of pursuing a consistent nationally oriented foreign policy. On the other hand, he called in vain - the Chinese are well aware of the progressive weakness of Washington, but remember that if you let this beast lie down and recover, it will again try to bite. Therefore, there will be no concessions. Beijing, together with Russia, will slowly but surely choke the beast in its lair.

Moscow is also, of course, beneficial to new American problems in the Far East, but I would not want the crisis to escalate into a nuclear war, which in this case will not bypass Russia.

Until the American danger has disappeared, the alliance between Russia and China will be difficult to break - the presence of a common dangerous enemy brings them closer than any other problems. But even after the disappearance of the American threat, if Russia and China do not change their way of doing things - reaching a difficult compromise through long negotiations, instead of confrontation, nothing threatens their alliance. If a power that controls more than half of the planet's resources and is capable of destroying civilization with one movement is ready to negotiate, they negotiate with it, because confrontation is dearer to itself.

The example of the United States, which lost its global hegemony in a confrontation with Russia, is another science.

This entry is also available on Online the author.

 About the Author:
Ukrainian political scientist, publicist, historian, diplomat
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