Blogs of political scientists

Oleksiy Yakubin: What to expect in Ukraine in August - how will the war proceed?

Oleksiy Yakubin: What to expect in Ukraine in August - how will the war proceed?

On the website of the main opposition project of Ukraine "Voice of Truth» published a new post political scientist Alexey Yakubin:

In August, we are waiting for a number of key moments. First, the start of the American Lend-Lease. The delivery of weapons to Ukraine should go faster than before. Secondly, we are in a kind of expectation - what will happen next at the front? This is especially true of Donbass and the south of the country. When will the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine take place, how will it begin, how will it proceed? I think we will receive partial answers to these questions in August. Most likely, for Independence Day, which is celebrated on the 24th. The strategy of the top military-political leadership in this perspective is already visible. Its essence is that first you need to liberate the southern regions (we are talking, first of all, about the Kherson and Nikolaev regions, possibly also about Zaporozhye), and then, perhaps, we will be ready for negotiations with the Russian Federation. Apparently, with intermediaries, with security guarantees and the like. Therefore, for the Ukrainian authorities, priority No. 1 is the situation at the front, achieving positive results there, and increasing the supply of modern weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Thirdly, August will be a test month for the operation of the grain maritime corridor. The first ships should leave next week, the first week of August.

One of the key events in domestic policy will be the socio-economic issue. Namely, whether the authorities will be able to maintain the socio-economic situation. We see what is happening now with the hryvnia exchange rate. And the population has colossal fears: what to expect in the fall, will the devaluation and inflation stop? It even depends on the attitude to power as such. And the latter, of course, will seek to find new resources in the countries to meet the needs. Including look for gas, because the heating season is just around the corner, - the expert notes. - And now there is a shortage of gas even in Europe. We see what is happening around the Northern Pit-1. Will Russia stop supplying blue fuel to Europeans altogether?

Of international issues, the issue of Taiwan will remain a priority. If we see the emergence of a new conflict point in the world, this is not the best scenario for Ukraine, to put it mildly. After all, the United States will then begin to focus its resources in many respects precisely there.

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